Hello and welcome to another edition of the presidential election series as I’ll be discussing the Election of 1992, it’s the first three way presidential election since 1980 as President George HW Bush is going up against Democratic Candidate and Arkansas Governor, Bill Clinton and Independent Candidate/Billionaire Business Man, Ross Perot…So with all that said, let’s get into it.
The Presidency of George HW Bush
After eights years as Ronald Reagan’s Vice President and successfully winning his bid for the presidency in 1988, George Herbert Walker Bush became commander-in-chief at a very interesting point in American History as he oversaw the end of the Soviet Union and the Collapse of the Berlin Wall thus bringing the Cold War to a much needed.
Bush’s signing of treaties that reduce nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia, overthrowing a former ally turn dictator during the 1989 Invasion of Panama and his handling of the Persian Gulf from 1990-91 are key points during the HW’s administration with that latter achievement seeing the president’s polling numbers go as high as 91-89%.
Add in his signing of the 1990 Immigration Act, the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, the Clean Air Act and the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 and it’s easy to see why many expected George HW Bush to not only win his party’s nomination, but another term as president, however there were a few issues with that plan…which can be traced all the way back to the economy.
Remember in the 1988 election, Bush promised not to raises taxes, well fast forward to 1990 and the deficit spending under the Reagan administration led to the economy going into free fall which eventually led to Bush and the Democratically controlled Congress to pass the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act which saw a tax increase for many including the top income earners.
While the recession who come to an end not long before the election, Republicans (especially conservatives) hated Bush for breaking his promise and as a result, Pat Buchannan who was a former journalist and advisor to former President’s Nixon, Ford and Reagan decided to challenge Bush for the GOP’s nomination.
Although Buchanan’s showing in the primaries were good, it wasn’t big enough to stop Bush from winning the Republican Party’s nomination with Vice President, Dan Quayle once again renominated as Bush’s running mate.
Governor Bill Clinton
When Bush’s polling numbers soared following the Gulf War, many Democratic hopefuls refused to run, This isn’t too surprising considering that the Republicans have held control of the White House since 1968 (with the sole exception of Jimmy Carter in 1976) and the last three elections have seen the Democratic candidates destroyed both in the electoral and popular vote.
Still, there were a few names that compete for the party’s nomination like Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown who was once again the Governor of California and had run for the presidency back in ’76 and 1980 and then there was Bill Clinton who was the Governor of Arkansas and much like Gary Hart in 1984 was a more Centrist/Moderate Democrat.
Though the primaries went back and forth between all three candidates, Clinton was able to bounce back from extra martial affair accusations to win his party’s nomination. Clinton had long list of optional running mates in this election with Pennsylvania Senator, Harris Wolfford nearly getting the spot but ultimately it was Tennessee Senator, Al Gore who got it.
Gore was looking to run for the presidency at first in this election, but due his son being hurt from a car accident he refused to do so, however he did take up Clinton’s offer to be the running mate in this election.
Ross Perot for President
As George Bush and Bill Clinton won their party’s nominations for president, a three character enters the race in Texas Billionaire and successful business man, Ross Perot who in appeared on the Larry King Live show in February of 1992 and announced that he would consider running for the office of president…But as an independent and if there was enough support by the American people for a three party option.
Sure enough, Perot got an overwhelming amount of support and began his campaign for president with many seeing Perot’s accomplishments as the founder of two technology companies in Electronic Data Systems and Perot Systems as a positive as voters believed that Perot could run the country as successfully as his businesses.
When it came to choosing his running mate for the election, James Stockdale was considered as he was a War Hero who served during the Vietnam War and was actually a prisoner of war during that conflict.,,but this confirmation was not made official yet.
Bizarrely, legendary musician Frank Zappa had actually thought about becoming Perot’s running mate in the ’92 election although you could argue that Zappa’s popularity would’ve overshadowed both Perot and the campaign itself. Not only that, but Zappa’s health wasn’t in the best shape as he suffered from prostate cancer in 1990 and would die from it late 1993.
In the end, Stockdale would become Perot’s running mate which helped greatly as having a war hero on the ticket could be used to great effect and could provide some insight on foreign policy.
The Campaigns
With the economy still lagging and the conservative wing of his party against him, George HW Bush attempts to run on the best aspects of his record while also criticizing Clinton for his lack of foreign policy experience, dodging the draft during the Vietnam War and his history for smoking marijuana.
Sadly with his top campaign strategist, Lee Atwater succumbing to brain cancer in 1991, Bush attempts to smear his opponent’s image doesn’t work as well as it did before; So instead Bush calls up his friend/former official/ 1984 campaign manager for Ronald Reagan, James Baker to help lead the campaign team in order to help the president’s waning poll numbers.
Clinton meanwhile attempts to salvage his campaign by making tours across the country, calling out George Bush for his dishonesty and the growing wealth gap in America. Clinton is also finding ways to appeal to younger voters but also minorities as seen on June 7th 1992 when he famously played the saxophone on The Arsenio Hall.
Ross Perot attempts to use his money to buy air time on major television networks where he talks about everything from business to balancing the budget while also supporting policies like protectionism, weakening the influence of special interests, gun control and using the internet to help increase voting accessibility.
By the spring of 1992, the polls showed Perot beating Clinton and Bush with the billionaire Texan at 39% to the president’s 31% and Clinton in a distance three place with 25%…that all changed in July when Perot decided to drop out of the race with many perplexed at this decision as some speculating it might have be due to internal problems within his campaign team. In actuality, Perot’s reasoning was due to alleged doctored photos of his daughter being release to the public by the Bush campaign right around the time of her wedding, so to save her and family from that attention…he dropped out.
Although many question how accurate this claim was by Perot…The Bush campaign did used underhanded antics to smear Michael Dukakis’ image during the ’88 election, but regardless this move left many Perot supporters disheartened and soon Clinton’s numbers began to improve from 25% to 55%.
The Debates
As the month of October began, both Bush and Clinton had to find a way to get the advantage over the other in order to secure a decisive win come election day and the best to do that was to have a solid performance at the presidential debates.
Both candidates agreed to a town hall debate where the people in the crowd to ask the questions and there would be at least four debates (with three debates for the presidential candidates and one for the VP candidates).
To add to the excitement, Ross Perot announced he was back in the race in October after gaining ballot access in all 50 states a month prior and this meant the 1992 presidential debates marked the first and only time three candidates debated each other on stage.
The viewership between all four debates ranged from 51 million to near 70 million with most polls claiming that Perot had a solid performance over his rivals in the first and third debate while the second debate was won by Clinton and his running mate, Al Gore was victorious in the Vice Presidential debate.
Key moments of these debates range from James Stockdale’s unintentionally funny quip of “Who am I? Why am I here?”, to Ross Perot’s now legendary remarks about Americans trade deals with foreign nations to a member of the audience asking a question as to how the recession affected the candidates personally and the infamous moment of the camera picking up Bush looking at his watch during the debates…with the latter two moments being the biggest blow to Bush’s campaign following the debates, however it’s came later on in the month that would be the final nail in President Bush’s chances at re-election.
The October Surprise
Near the end of the election, Bush and his team attempt to attack Clinton on his record as well as his judgment/character in order to build a sense of distrust within the American People towards at Clinton Presidency, but it will be Bush’s character that will be put into question following a shocking discovery on October 30th 1992.
One day before Halloween it’s revealed that Casper Weinberger, the former Secretary of Defense who been indicted on perjury charges related to the Iran-Contra Affair had taken notes in 1986 regarding George Bush’s involvement in the arms trading scandal that nearly destroy the Reagan Presidency.
The revelations of this report not only made Bush’s smearing of Clinton’s character hypocritical but it further cemented the idea of Bush being an untrustworthy person in addition to breaking his pledge not to raises taxes four year ago…Overall, not a good look for Bush going into the election and speaking of which, it’s time to look at the results.
The Results
When the results were all tallied, it became clear very quickly that Bill Clinton had won the election and thus became for 42rd President of the United States; Clinton became the third youngest president elected to the office at just 46 years and five months old.
He had won 32 states and DC to secure the win with 370 electoral votes, but only received 43% of the popular vote, making this the first time since John F. Kennedy in 1960 that the Democrats won an election by not an outright majority of the popular vote.
George Herbert Walker Bush finished in a distance second place carrying 18 states to get 168 electoral votes and 37.5% of the popular vote. In terms of the popular vote this was the worst performance for a Republican President seeking re-election since Herbert Hoover and it would also be the last a president failed to win a second term until the 21st century.
Ross Perot came in third receiving 18.9% of the popular vote which was the best performance for a third party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912. Unfortunately for Perot, he won no electoral votes as his support was consistent around the country, however he did come in second place in Utah and Maine and had he won those two states he would’ve be the first third party candidate since George Wallace to actually win electoral votes.
Many (including Bush himself) have tried to blame the president’s loss in 1992 squarely on Ross Perot’s involvement in the race, but there is little evidence to back up these claims as Perot garnered support from both sides of the political spectrum…this would cause both Democrats and Republicans to make great efforts to prevent anymore third party candidates from every getting close to the presidential debate stage in the years that followed.
And that was the election of 1992, George HW Bush has become a one termer and Bill Clinton is now the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to elected president, but the road ahead will not be an easy one as will see in the next election.
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