After the drubbing received in the general election, Rishi Sunak announced he would stand down as Conservative Party leader, kicking off a leadership contest. A crowded field of names, these are who those hoping to become the next Tory leader are and what their chances are of winning.
*Please note: at the time of writing, six names have announced they are standing in the leadership race.
Kemi Badenoch: 8/10
Of those who have so far put their hats in the ring, one of the leadership favourites is Kemi Badenoch.
The former Business Secretary has constantly ranked among the favourite Conservative Party MP amongst the party’s grassroots, including in surveys by YouGov and ConservativeHome.
She has perhaps been the most spotlighted figure during the campaign, accusing her opponents of “dirty tricks”, having a speech leaked, and getting into a public spat with Suella Braverman.
A young and relatively uncontroversial figure across the party, she may have the best chance of uniting the party, having become an icon of the right through her anti-trans stance.
Betfred, William Hill, and Paddy Power all have Badenoch’s chances as 15/8. The Oddschecker website gives her a 34% chance to her next closest competitor at 25%.
Robert Jenrick: 8/10
Another contender in with a good shout of winning is Robert Jenrick.
A strong voice on the party’s right-wing, he was the former Immigration Minister before resigning over the Rwanda deportation scheme in 2023, claiming the policy did “not go far enough.”
With his hardline anti-immigration policies, his leadership would be closely aligned with that of new right-wing threat Reform UK, which about half of Conservative Party members want to merge with according to polls.
Among Jenrick’s notable supporters are party bigwigs such as Father of the House Edward Leigh. Jenrick has benefitted in the decline of support for Suella Braverman in the face of anti-LGBTQ+ comments and rumours of a Reform defection, with allies such as Sir John Hayes and Danny Kruger now backing Jenrick.
As recent history tells us – look at Boris Johnson beating Jeremy Hunt in 2019 and Liz Truss besting Rishi Sunak in 2022 – party members tend to support the more right-wing candidates.
Priti Patel: 6/10
The former Home Secretary Priti Patel was the fifth name to put herself forward and has somewhat of a chance of winning.
Patel’s right-wing credentials are solid, having presided over the Rwanda deal and been endorsed by former Deputy Chairmen Brendan Clarke-Smith and Jonathan Gullis.
Although she has been a backbencher in the Truss and Sunak ministries, her distance from the current government could turn out to be a blessing. Even more so due to his closeness with the still-popular Boris Johnson, universally regarded within the party as a strong election winner.
That said, she has had her fair share of controversies from bullying accusations to unauthorised meetings to criticism of the Black Lives Matter movement.
Tom Tugendhat: 5/10
Running as the centrist candidate, Tom Tugendhat was the second MP to throw himself into the race.
The One Nation Tory previously ran for Conservative leader in 2022, raising over £120,000.
A former Security minister, although he is running on returning the party to the centre-ground, he has written in The Telegraph about his willingness to leave the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR).
Those pledging their support to Tugendhat include former Northern Ireland Secretary Steve Baker, former First Secretary of State Damian Green, and former Party Chairman Jake Berry.
A relatively uncontroversial, reliable pair of hands, he is the moderate candidate most likely to emerge victorious.
James Cleverly: 4/10
The very first person to announce they were standing was the Shadow Home Secretary James Cleverly, whose chance of victory seems slim.
As Foreign and then Home Secretary, an issue will be Cleverly’s closeness to the previous unpopular government.
Other issues will be his unwillingness to establish a merger with Reform and his own opposition to party policy such as the Rwanda plan, which he reportedly called “bat shit.”
He is also the only running candidate with facial hair, a fact that may sound trivial, but no facial hair-bearing figure has been a leader of the Tory party in well over half a century.
Nonetheless, his campaign will attempt to run on a centrist platform, attempting to unite the party, with Cleverly aiming to expand the broadchurch appeal of the outfit.
Mel Stride: 1/10
The MP with the least chance of winning is undoubtedly Mel Stride.
The former Department for Work and Pensions Minister raised his national profile during the general election where he was one of the government’s most rolled-out faces on the media rounds. Before that he had been Paymaster General, Financial Secretary to the Treasury, and Leader of the House of Commons.
He has pledged to meet 3% of GDP being spent on defence.
Notably, in the election, he barely clung onto his safe Tory seat in Cornwall by just 61 votes.
Nonetheless, a Stride leadership win seems out of the picture for most sensible people.
GRIFFIN KAYE.